Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
