Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
